Mike Baker — Former CIA covert operations officer who joined at 22 and spent his entire career overseas in the field. Now runs a strategic intelligence and investigations firm, hosts a podcast, and authored a book on applying CIA lessons to business.
The gist
Mike Baker explains how CIA tradecraft - targeting, building rapport, identifying weaknesses and leverage, and recruiting human sources to commit treason - translates directly into business development, sales, and decision-making. The conversation then turns to a wide-ranging geopolitical threat assessment: the likely negotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine war, China's intentions toward Taiwan and the South China Sea, Iran as the largest state sponsor of terror and the regime's assassination plots against Trump, and the rising danger of nuclear proliferation. Baker argues the next global conflict will be fought via cyberattacks on critical infrastructure that bring pain straight to the homeland, and warns about foreign disinformation campaigns exploiting Western division through platforms like TikTok. He closes on parenting, hard work, loyalty, and the influence of his father.
Big reveals
- Claims China is already at war with the West, we just don't see it.
- States Iran has definitely tried to assassinate Trump and keeps a hit list of US officials.
- Predicts the Russia-Ukraine war ends in a negotiated settlement in 2025 with lines roughly back to pre-invasion plus some Russian-held territory.
- Bets the US would NOT send troops to defend Taiwan no matter who is president, despite public promises.
- Confirms the US president has sole, unilateral power to launch nuclear weapons with no required consultation.
- Describes Russia's Cold War 'Dead Hand' automated nuclear-launch system that removed humans from the decision.
- Warns the next global conflict will shut down US power, water, fuel, food, and cash via infrastructure attacks.
- Says the most important factors in his success were his parents and his wife, not his career.
Things worth remembering
- Ukrainian willingness to fight indefinitely dropped from 73% to 63% over the year per a Kyiv institute's surveys.
- Russia holds roughly a 3-to-1 manpower advantage along a ~620-mile front line.
- Putin amassed ~40,000 Russian and ~10,000 North Korean troops; Kim Jong-un sent upwards of 12,000 soldiers.
- Taiwan matters partly because it is a critical chip-manufacturing center, beyond the emotional/values case.
- The US president can order a nuclear launch without consulting the House, Senate, or holding a meeting.
- A US nuclear submarine warhead has seven times the destructive power of all WWII bombs combined, and the US has 10 such subs.
- Baker argues we were closer to nuclear war at the height of the Cold War than today, despite more warheads now.
- Chinese citizens cannot access TikTok inside China; a different app is offered domestically.
- References the false Hawaii missile alert that left people panicking for ~30 minutes over an accidental button press.
- Notes US strategy shifted from fomenting uprisings to getting information into closed countries like Iran.
Recommended in this episode
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Company Rules: Or Everything I Know About Business I Learned from the CIA
Mike Baker (inferred)
“the way that you deliver the information through your book through your podcast and even here today... is incredibly important because it's so accessible” — Steven Bartlett 02:13:54Find it on Amazon